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MANIFOLD
Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ22
2039
40%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.

“European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.

A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before. Test flights count if they reach orbit. Suborbital flights do not count.

Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.

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