https://astra.com/news/astra-ships-110
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Astra successfully launches Rocket 4 at any point during 2026. The rocket does not have to be successful, it just has to get off the ground.
The company has announced plans for a first test flight in summer 2026 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, followed by a second launch in October or November for the Defense Department's Space Test Program. Resolution will be confirmed via official Astra announcements, FAA launch records, or major space news outlets (SpaceNews, Space Explored, NASA announcements).
Background
Astra announced in January 2026 that it has shipped 110 satellite engine systems since January 1, 2025, while continuing to develop its new rocket and mobile launch system to support a 2026 test flight. In 2025, Astra progressed major subsystems with approximately 75% first-stage design completion and 90%+ upper-stage design completion. Given Astra's low development budget and history of troubles, delays are expected for Rocket 4's launch.
Considerations
Astra's Rocket 3 series had a poor track record, with only 2 successful missions out of 10 launch campaigns. Rocket 4 is designed as a transportable launch system using standard shipping containers, allowing it to operate from sites with little more than a concrete pad.
1,000@ChurlishGambit because I think the probability is about 15%, and that's my initial guess for where the market should be.
@LarsOsborne Oh...well, it sort of loads the market to be of a lot less interest, you've already taken a lot of the juice out. I also think the chance is maybe 15%, but I can't bet down to it, & there isn't much profit to be gained from placing a further "NO" bet. Only "YES" bettors have a reason to bet