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MANIFOLD
When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit? (Quarters)
5
Ṁ225Ṁ2k
2029
0.1%
2026 Q1
0.1%
2026 Q2
99%
2026 Q3
0.1%
2026 Q4
0.1%
2027 Q1
0.1%
2027 Q2
0.1%
2027 Q3
0.1%
2027 Q4
0.2%
Other

The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings. This question includes the Long March 10A.

  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Whether Long March 10B will be included in this market depends on whether it is genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package, or a new rocket with the same name. The creator will make this determination when more information becomes available.

  • Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market now includes the Long March 10B variant.

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This question includes the Long March 10B

Does this include Long March 10B?

@Narnianknight I think we need to wait for more information. Is it genuinely the same rocket with a different engine and fuel package? Or is it just a new rocket they have decided to put the same name on?

@JoshuaWilkes I recognise that this is an inadequate response given the context. Let me do some more research in a few more hours and I'll make a call