The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings Update 2025-08-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Long March 10A counts: The market includes the Long March 10A variant. If the 10A is the first to reach orbit, resolution will use that date.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2026, followed by 2027 and 2028- are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Jul 10, 2026).

When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit?

MANIFOLD

When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit?

Ṁ320Ṁ778

2028

ALL

-2025

79%

2026

11%

2027

2028-

The Long March 10 is an evolution of the Long March 5 and is primarily intended to enable China's crewed lunar landings

Update 2025-08-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Long March 10A counts: The market includes the Long March 10A variant. If the 10A is the first to reach orbit, resolution will use that date.

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