Will CALT's Long March 9 rocket launch before 2035?
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70%
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CALT manufactures the majority of CNSA's Long March family of rockets. Long March 9 will be quite similar to Starship / Superheavy and will as of now be powered by engines quite similar to Raptor 2. The first launch of Long March 9 is scheduled to happen in 2033.
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch.
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