When will Starship first fly paying passengers point to point?
Basic
20
768
2041
5%
2024-26
14%
2027-29
10%
2030-32
7%
2033-35
6%
2036-40
57%
After 2040 or Never

Any Starship-derived vehicle would count. If this becomes an issue I will adjudicate and will take a liberal view on what could be considered Starship-derived.

It must be a regularly scheduled flight (at least weekly), between two locations, that anyone could buy tickets on, rather than a demonstration flight.

If SpaceX does this themselves it will qualify. If SpaceX spin off a new company to do this it will qualify. If a different company contracts SpaceX to provide this service that will qualify. If a different company purchases Starships from SpaceX to do this that will qualify.

After 2040 or Never will resolve YES at the beginning of 2041. It could resolve earlier if it's clear this is never going to happen. I will adjudicate this.

NB: SpaceX saying they won't do it is not enough! If they are running Starship for other purposes I will consider this a live question.

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I thought this was a nice video on this.

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