When will a suborbital rocket, excluding Starship, first fly paying passengers point to point?
8
510Ṁ5612041
2%
2024-26
2%
2027-29
5%
2030-32
6%
2033-35
13%
2036-40
72%
After 2040 or Never
Starship derived vehicles would not count. I will take a liberal view of what might be considered Starship-derived.
Any rocket system that can travel at least 4000km at hypersonic speeds on a (mostly) ballistic trajectory would count.
It must be a regularly scheduled flight (at least weekly), between two locations, that anyone could buy tickets on, rather than a demonstration flight.
After 2040 or Never will resolve YES at the beginning of 2041.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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