If a market submitted here resolves in the same direction as /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres , either both Yes or both No, that submission will resolve Yes here.

If a submitted market resolves in the opposite direction as the Trump Market, it will resolve No. If one of the markets resolves N/A or %, I may N/A that option here unless I think it was a mis-resolution.

To make effective bets here, my advice is that you should first figure out the chances that the two markets resolve the same way if the probabilities are accurate and they are independent events. For a market very likely to resolve yes, this would be close to Trump's current % odds. For a market very likely to resolve No, this would be close to (1 - Trump's current % odds). For anything else, it'll be somewhere in the middle. Call this P(I).

Then, if you think the event is correlated with Trump's election, you should bet higher than P(I). If you think it's anti-correlated, you should bet lower than P(I). If you think it's not very correlated or anti-correlated, you should try to bet against the people betting it higher or lower than P(I).

You can submit your own markets in the format of [Market Title] - [Link to market]. If the market's end date isn't obvious, please also include that information in the title like for the market about a recession.

Guidelines for what good submissions should probably have:

• About something that someone might reasonably think is correlated or anti-correlated with Trump's election.

• Is not directly about the election. Nothing like "Will Trump win Pennsylvania".

• Is not extremely likely or extremely unlikely to occur (this makes the correlation much less worth betting on, even if it exists).

• Has well written criteria, and so is unlikely to resolve N/A or to %.

• The market has a decent chance of resolving in 2024 or shortly after.

I may N/A any submissions that I view as not meeting these conditions, or which simply aren't interesting enough to attract traders. But these are guidelines, and not strict rules. I'm open to suggestions for improving these criteria, please let me know any you think of.