2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt?

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resolved Dec 19

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Resolves Yes if the Tipping-point state in the 2024 US Presidential Election is is New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, or Wisconsin.

Primary resolution source on which state is the tipping-point will be FiveThirtyEight.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Resolves yes (PA)

The final 2020 model assigned a 54.4% probability of one of these states being the tipping-point.

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