Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy in the next 3 years? - https://manifold.markets/GregF/will-there-be-official-peace-talks

'/gregf/will-there-be-official-peace-talks':19 '3':15 'involv':7 'manifold.markets':18 'manifold.markets/gregf/will-there-be-official-peace-talks':17 'next':14 'offici':4 'peac':5 'putin':9 'talk':6 'year':16 'zelenskyy':11

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030? - https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23

'/nickheinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23':11 '2030':8 'iran':2 'manifold.markets':10 'manifold.markets/nickheinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23':9 'nuclear':5 'weapon':6


Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025? https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-real-money-prediction-markets

'/isaacking/will-real-money-prediction-markets':18 '2025':15 'becom':6 'end':13 'legal':7 'manifold.markets':17 'manifold.markets/isaacking/will-real-money-prediction-markets':16 'market':5 'money':3 'predict':4 'real':2 'us':10

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028? https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677

'/marcusabramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677':18 '2028':15 'abandon':5 'ambigu':11 'china/taiwan':13 'manifold.markets':17 'manifold.markets/marcusabramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677':16 'polici':8 'state':4 'strateg':10 'toward':12 'unit':3

If a market submitted here resolves before the 2024 election, it resolves N/A. If it resolves after the election and before 2030, it will be compared to 

If one of the market resolves N/A or %, I may N/A that option here unless I think it was a mis-resolution. Any markets set to resolve after 2030 will be N/A-ed.

To make effective bets here, my advice is you should first figure out the chances that the two markets resolve the same way if the probabilities are accurate and they are independent events. For a market very likely to resolve yes, this would be close to Trump's current % odds. For a market very likely to resolve No, this would be close to (1 - Trump's current % odds). For anything else, it'll be somewhere in the middle. Call this P(I).

Then, if you think the event is correlated with Trump's election, you should bet higher than P(I). If you think it's anti-correlated, you should bet lower than P(I). If you think it's not very correlated or anti-correlated, you should try to bet against the people betting it higher or lower than P(I).

You can submit your own markets in the format of [Market Title] - [Link to market]. 

I may N/A any submissions that I view as not meeting these conditions, or which simply aren't interesting enough to attract traders. But these are guidelines, and not strict rules. I'm open to suggestions for improving these criteria, please let me know any you think of.