By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology?

1.4kṀ8337

2040

74%

Not by 2040

1.8%

By 2025

By 2030

By 2035

By 2040

This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.

It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "not by 2040" if this does not happen.

I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia. I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.

If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus. I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.

This question uses a broad definition of "Aliens", any UFO using technology not of human origin would qualify.

For a version of this question with individual options so your mana doesn't get locked up, see here:

Aliens

UFO

Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs)

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@Joshua Please confirm whether this will resolve 'yes' or 'no' if consensus is established during 2025.

In other words, should it have been resolved already?

Does Alien = any kind of non-human intelligence for this market? For example does homegrown but non-human earth intelligence count?

Sure, but it has to be from before this market was made so an AI that's developed in 2030 can't resolve this.

New market with unlinked options, so they can resolve early!

I don't think it's realistic to bid anything higher than 2030 on this market. If the government doesn't already know the answer to this question, AGI will be able to infer it pretty quickly as one of the first tasks it takes on.