When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Question

See previously:

@/Joshua/by-what-year-will-we-know-that-any

@/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500

This is an unlinked market, so that each time period can resolve NO independently, or they can resolve YES all together. It also includes meta-options about the other options.

An answer resolves NO if it arrives without there being proof of a UFO/UAP from before market creation having a worldview-shattering origin such as aliens, time-travelers, interdimensional travelers, secret superintelligence made by ancient humans, biblical demons, etc.

All answers resolve YES if this is proven and generally accepted, by the standards of a reliable encyclopedia.

I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia. I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree on a yes resolution, to ensure that there is truly a consensus. I may also delegate judgment to a council of trustworthy user if there is disagreement.

This market is not specifically about Eliezer's worldview or my own, but rather the general secular, materialist worldview as of market creation.

I will add more timeframes as timeframes expire, with the goal being to have an option for every month if this market attracts sufficient interest. I will also judge meta-options, like [Any single non-meta option is continuously over 50% for any 4 week period with the resolution being less than one year away, by 2030].

If you would like to submit an interesting meta option, let me know in a comment or DM and if I like it I'll use the new toggle Manifold just released to open the market for submissions so you can add it yourself and get unique trader bonuses for anyone who bets on it.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before January 2028 and Before January 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (110 traders, as of Sep 21, 2026).