When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
34
767
2.7k
Jun 2
0.2%
By June 2024
0.5%
By July 2024
1.2%
By January 2025
1.7%
By January 2026
2%
By January 2027
7%
By January 2028
9%
By January 2029
9%
By January 2030
12%
By January 2040
4%
[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]
5%
[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

See previously:

/Joshua/by-what-year-will-we-know-that-any

/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500

This is an unlinked market, so that each time period can resolve NO independently, or they can resolve YES all together. It also includes meta-options about the other options.

An answer resolves NO if it arrives without there being proof of a UFO/UAP from before market creation having a worldview-shattering origin such as aliens, time-travelers, interdimensional travelers, secret superintelligence made by ancient humans, biblical demons, etc.

All answers resolve YES if this is proven and generally accepted, by the standards of a reliable encyclopedia.

I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia. I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree on a yes resolution, to ensure that there is truly a consensus. I may also delegate judgment to a council of trustworthy user if there is disagreement.

This market is not specifically about Eliezer's worldview or my own, but rather the general secular, materialist worldview as of market creation.

I will add more timeframes as timeframes expire, with the goal being to have an option for every month if this market attracts sufficient interest. I will also judge meta-options, like [Any single non-meta option is continuously over 50% for any 4 week period with the resolution being less than one year away, by 2030].

If you would like to submit an interesting meta option, let me know in a comment or DM and if I like it I'll use the new toggle Manifold just released to open the market for submissions so you can add it yourself and get unique trader bonuses for anyone who bets on it.

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@Joshua you may wanna extend this one

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Hmmm I'm immediately noticing that this is trivially true so I'm N/Aing it. It's hard to think of interesting meta-options that don't become distortionary mana-fights. Anyone have suggestions?

@Joshua maybe an option for fake news hyping everyone up, or "Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours and resolves NO"

I like that! Personally I'd amend it to

"Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO" to make the intent explicit so someone can't disingenuously buy an option up when we're all distracted by something else for 24 hours. That sound good to you?

@Joshua Yeah all good, feel free to tweak the % and time too.

@SavioMak I'll open the market to submissions for you to put it in and get trader bonuses!

@Joshua Sorry, I had some work to do just now. I have another idea actually, an option for how fast the real news go out (the time between people getting the idea that maybe aliens exist to people saying "yeah UFOs are definitely aliens"), or "1 month prior to a creible news source providing concrete proof, the percentage of the earliest month that resolves YES is higher than 25%" (Not too sure about the wording, it is clumsy)

@SavioMak I think an option like that wouldn't work unless it N/A-ed if no proof was produced, because otherwise it would stay at < 10% with the rest of the options. And in general I don't want to have meta options that N/A.

Oh, in fact I think I might have to edit the option we were talking about bc we didn't specify a timeframe. Does before 2026 seem fine? You can sell if not.

bought Ṁ35 of [Any month is contin... NO

yeah I will edit it in, no problem for me

Already got it! DM me if you have other ideas though.

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