Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?
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2026
7%
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Resolves YES if the existence of interdimensional UFOs is generally accepted, by the standards of reliable encyclopedias.

Resolution will be based on a consensus of trusted encyclopedias; primarily based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia. If the state of consensus is unclear, the judgment of whether trusted encyclopedias are in consensus will be made by a council of trustworthy users.

The definition of interdimensional is not super clear to me, please comment if you have a good definition, but we'll defer to however the encyclopedias of the future define it. Merely extraterrestrial aliens would not be sufficient, they need to be "interdimensional" UFOs to count.

Context: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/close-encounters-congressional-kind-lawmakers-struggle-grasp-alleged-interdimensional-nature-ufos

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interdimensional_UFO_hypothesis

Related: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo

Details:

  • The consensus requirement also implies that e.g. someone vandalizing Wikipedia would not count, it has to be a real consensus.

  • The question just requires existence of interdimensional UFOs before the end date of the question. So that includes ones observed either before or after the question creation date.

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