Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Question

Resolves YES if we find out that any UFOs are "real", in the sense that they're real objects of about the purported size that are actually flying around at those insane speeds/manuverability. They could be alien technology or secret Earth technology, either one resolves this to YES.

Otherwise this resolves to NO once any of the following are true:

We have a clear explanation for all outstanding credible claims. (e.g. the "tic tac" UFO that several people claim to have seen at close range.)

There's no longer any serious discussion about whether UFOs are real and pretty much all of humanity agrees they're not. (Similar to the current stance on the Earth being round.)

We've discovered the theory of everything and know that such UFOs would not be possible to build.

We've explored >90% of the Milky Way and have not found any signs of other spacefaring life, and we are not yet known to have invented such technology ourselves.

UFOs that turn out to be normal planes or balloons don't count; in order for this market to resolve to YES, they have to be something that uses much more advanced technology than is publically known. (e.g. flying with no control surfaces, able to survive g-forces that no known plane could survive, able to hover with no apparent source of thrust, etc.) If it turns out to be advanced hologram or mind-altering technlogy used to fool people into thinking they saw a UFO, that also resolves NO.

This market is only about UFOs observed prior to market creation. Though of course if we later find a new UFO that is such advanced technology, that would be strong evidence towards some of the earlier ones having been as well.

To bet on whether they're of human or extraterrestrial origin, see @/IsaacKing/if-any-ufos-are-highly-advanced-tec

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (102 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).