Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
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2029
35%
chance

They don't have to actually declassify *everything* to resolve YES. It's enough that they make some substantial declassifications and do it in a way that seems intended to give the impression that they are "declassifying everything". Redactions are fine, national security exceptions are fine, this is ultimately more about political perception than reality.

If a presidential candidate pledges to declassify everything and then on winning election does some significant declassifications in a way that seems intended to fulfill that campaign promise that would presumptively resolve YES.

In case of ambiguity I may resolve to market IF I think the market price seems reasonable and not an artifact of manipulation or poor liquidity. Otherwise I will just make my own best judgement.

But ideally if an ambiguous event is brewing, mention it in the comments and we'll try to get a consensus ahead of time.

Update: If something like https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/uap_amendment.pdf passes, that would also presumptively resolve YES, unless it was basically a dead letter, ie. pretty much completely ignored by the executive branch with respect to declassification.

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If something like https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/uap_amendment.pdf passes, that would also presumptively resolve YES, unless it was basically a dead letter, ie. pretty much completely ignored by the executive branch with respect to declassification.