Will Destiny discuss AI Safety before 2026?
Plus
13
Ṁ6042025
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Destiny debates anyone on the moratorium, orthogonality, e/acc, P(doom) or other stuff aimed at making future AI go well. Also resolves yes if he interviews anyone from or opposing the field about the field.
Past appearances don't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@KwameOsei How so? Based on his discussion with Eliezer, he doesn't seem to take the issue that seriously, and ~1.5 years is not that much time. Moreover, it's probably safe to assume that the rest of this year is a write-off, given that it'll be pretty focused on Israel-Palestine and then the election later in the year.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a significant AI safety incident involving OpenAI o1 before April 2025?
41% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
60% chance
Will there be another blatant demonstration of AI risks, comparable to Bing Chat, by 2024?
30% chance
Will I still consider improving AI X-Safety my top priority on EOY 2024?
63% chance
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
76% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?
60% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
23% chance
In 2025, what 2019-2022 work of AI safety will I think was most significant?