By AI welfare I specifically mean concern about AI's subjective experience, moral patienthood, etc.

Examples of things that would count for a yes resolution:

• A major AI lab employee quits, citing model welfare concerns, and draws mainstream attention to a degree analogous to Jacob Coxon's quitting/tweets

• Legislation focused on model welfare is passed or seriously debated/considered

• Lab employees/other stakeholders publish a coordinated letter focused on AI welfare, drawing a comparable number of signatures or level of public attention to the Pacing the Frontier letter

Examples of things that would not count on their own:

• A lab CEO tweets that they're taking model welfare seriously or building a team dedicated to researching it

• Researchers make breakthroughs in model welfare research, but their findings don't get significant mainstream attention

Please ask for further clarification! Since the resolution is partially subjective I won't bet on it.