Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
36
1kṀ72792029
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, expanded to not refer to Eliezer in particular.
Resolves to YES if any statement is made or question asked, by anyone participating in a briefing, that clearly refers to AI existential risk, even if other words are used. Extinction risk, or any form of 'everyone will die' definitely counts. Intent is what matters here.
Merely catastrophic risk does not count.
Disrupting the proceedings does not count, unless this causes a participant to also mention it.
Resolves NO at the deadline if it hasn't happened yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
58% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
6% chance
Will Destiny discuss AI Safety before 2026?
53% chance
OpenAI CEO doesn't think existential risk from AI is a serious concern in Jan 2026
27% chance
Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?
89% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
69% chance
Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media
87% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance