Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
Plus
34
Ṁ69032029
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, expanded to not refer to Eliezer in particular.
Resolves to YES if any statement is made or question asked, by anyone participating in a briefing, that clearly refers to AI existential risk, even if other words are used. Extinction risk, or any form of 'everyone will die' definitely counts. Intent is what matters here.
Merely catastrophic risk does not count.
Disrupting the proceedings does not count, unless this causes a participant to also mention it.
Resolves NO at the deadline if it hasn't happened yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@ZviMowshowitz (or, rather, I am not going to resolve this YES until I have confirmation, one way or another)
Related questions
Related questions
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?
14% chance
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
57% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
30% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
77% chance
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
71% chance
Will existential risks from AI still be considered a top problem to work on within the EA community by the end of 2024?
97% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
32% chance