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MANIFOLD
Will building datacenters in the US be much more difficult by mid-2029?
6
Ṁ15kṀ14k
2029
16%
chance

The US is currently experiencing a rapid datacenter buildout but also a lot of anti-datacenter sentiment. Will the buildout be slowed substantially by mid-2029 for political reasons, compared to 2026?

I plan to resolve this question primarily by giving the resolution text to 2-3 frontier LLMs and asking them to resolve it. If the LLMs disagree, I'll use my personal judgment to resolve it, with a bias towards N/A.

Ways this question might resolve YES:

  • There's a federal ban on datacenters in the US

  • Most US states have passed datacenter moratoria, and the remaining ones aren't suitable for datacenters, such that few new hyperscale datacenters are built due to this

  • The US hasn't banned datacenters, but building datacenters in the US has become impractical or much more expensive, e.g. because the permitting for energy production has become much harder

  • Due to regulatory issues, the US has clearly become less attractive for building new hyperscale datacenters than other countries like Australia

Ways this question might resolve NO:

  • The current situation essentially continues

  • Nobody wants to build more datacenters due to an economic slowdown, but it would in theory still be as easy as before if the economic incentives were in place

  • AI training and inference are slowed/disincentivized, which reduces the economic incentive to build datacenters, but building datacenters would still be as easy as in 2026

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what if it's so easy to build datacenters that the whole world is covered in datacenters and theres no more space for more datacenters

bought Ṁ200 YES

Is this just for building?

What happens if they just cost a lot more to run. Maybe they have to pay extra tax to benefit local communities