Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC), there is a confirmed physical bombing or explosive strike against a data center facility primarily dedicated to or publicly characterized as an AI data center. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

For the purposes of this market:

• "Bombing or explosive strike" is defined as a deliberate physical attack using kinetic ordnance containing explosives. This includes missiles, military bombs, artillery, explosive-laden suicide/kamikaze drones (such as Shahed drones), or improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

• Exclusions: The following do not qualify for a "YES" resolution:

  • Cyberattacks of any kind (even if they result in physical damage via cooling or power systems).

  • Hoax bomb threats or foiled/failed plots where no actual detonation occurs on the facility's grounds.

  • Kinetic sabotage without explosives (e.g., cut fiber cables, physical break-ins, or arson/fire set without an explosive device).

• "AI datacenter" is defined as a facility that is explicitly reported by credible sources to house high-density AI hardware clusters (such as NVIDIA H100/Blackwell GPUs or Google TPUs) or is operated/leased by a dedicated AI developer or hyperscaler (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, or major hyperscale AI projects like Microsoft/OpenAI's planned "Stargate" cluster) for AI model training or inference.

• Note on March 2026 attacks: General cloud computing facilities, such as the standard Amazon Web Services (AWS) datacenters struck by Iranian drones in the UAE and Bahrain in March 2026, do not count unless the specific facility targeted is explicitly characterized in mainstream reporting as primarily an AI-focused datacenter or AI-compute cluster.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting from major, reputable news outlets (such as Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press, or industry-specific sources like Datacenter Dynamics) or official corporate/governmental press releases confirming the event.

Background

In March 2026, military tensions in the Middle East led to drone strikes hitting commercial Amazon Web Services (AWS) datacenters in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain—marking the first time commercial datacenters were targeted directly in state warfare. Shortly after, in April 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a video explicitly threatening a strike on the planned $30 billion, 1-gigawatt "Stargate" AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi, which is backed by OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, Softbank, and G42.

With the explosive expansion of AI infrastructure, these "AI factories"—which house billions of dollars worth of advanced GPUs—have emerged as high-value, high-leverage physical targets. Physical security experts and threat intelligence analysts have increasingly warned that both state actors and local anti-AI extremist groups are targeting physical AI infrastructure as symbols of corporate dominance, automation, and geopolitical power.

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