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MANIFOLD
Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026?
0
Ṁ100
Dec 31
25%
chance

New York became the first state on July 14, 2026, when Governor Hochul's Executive Order #62 paused discretionary environmental permits for 50MW+ data centers statewide. This market asks whether any other state follows before the year ends.

Resolves YES if: After August 10th, 2026 and before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. state other than New York imposes a legally binding, statewide moratorium or pause on either (a) permitting/approval of new hyperscale or AI data centers, or (b) new large-load data center interconnections to the electric grid.

Terms:

  • Qualifying instruments: state statute signed into law, governor's executive order, or a binding public utility commission order applying to all major investor-owned utilities in the state.

  • "Statewide" means the pause applies across the state or to substantially all prospective new hyperscale development in it. County and municipal moratoria do not count, regardless of how many exist.

  • The pause must be indefinite or last at least 3 months as issued. Carve-outs are acceptable (e.g., exempting applications already deemed complete, or facilities below a MW threshold up to 50MW) as long as the bulk of prospective new hyperscale capacity is covered — the NY EO's structure is the template for what qualifies.

  • Does NOT count: suspension or repeal of tax incentives or subsidies alone (Arizona's 2026 tax-break pause would not qualify), study commissions without a binding pause, voluntary utility pauses on connection requests, bills passed by one or both chambers but not signed, or court orders blocking projects.

  • The instrument must be signed/issued after market creation. Pre-existing actions by any state do not count — only New York has acted as of creation, but if that's wrong, it still resolves NO on this clause.

  • Effective date may fall in 2027; issuance must occur in 2026.

  • Resolution per official state announcements or reporting from two major outlets.

Market context
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