Were the explosions in Caracas US military action?
6
1kṀ9580resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if it’s confirmed to be action by the US military specifically. CIA action doesn’t count. Resolves N/A if the explosions did not actually occur. I will not bet on this market.
Specifically refers to the explosions that occurred on 1/3/2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ482 | |
| 2 | Ṁ361 | |
| 3 | Ṁ59 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
Will the US military invade Venezuela and remove president Maduro from office before May, 2026?
99% chance
US invades Venezuela by January 31st? [Polymarket]
9% chance
Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2026?
99% chance
Which explosions in Venezuela will we learn the US was responsible for by the end of January?
Will the United States conduct additional military action against Venezuela before February 2026?
60% chance
Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)
90% chance
Will Venezuela attack the US before January 31?
5% chance
Venezuelan oil tankers seized by the US by Jan 31st
4.18
Will Keir Starmer strongly condemn the US attack on Venezuela?
11% chance
Was the US operation to remove Maduro good (morally)?
POLL
Sort by:
@brod well, that escalated quickly. I’m going to give it ‘till this morning to resolve in case of shenanigans. But it looks plausibly like the US did it.

People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US military invade Venezuela and remove president Maduro from office before May, 2026?
99% chance
US invades Venezuela by January 31st? [Polymarket]
9% chance
Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2026?
99% chance
Which explosions in Venezuela will we learn the US was responsible for by the end of January?
Will the United States conduct additional military action against Venezuela before February 2026?
60% chance
Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)
90% chance
Will Venezuela attack the US before January 31?
5% chance
Venezuelan oil tankers seized by the US by Jan 31st
4.18
Will Keir Starmer strongly condemn the US attack on Venezuela?
11% chance
Was the US operation to remove Maduro good (morally)?
POLL