this is why i don't use polymarket

@Robincvgr yes manifold also has shitty resolution criterias but here you can yell at individual market creators

u n e x p e c t e d - outcome

@24norwayElimSolberg ???

Stupid clanker

US is not invading Venezuela right now

Can you do a Poll on a Guerrilla Conflict in Venezuela?

Does anyone feel like they have a good grasp of what would cause this to resolve yes?

@FergusArgyll I think it will resolve yes if US ground forces enter Venezuela and then occupy/control Venezuelan territory (or at least attempt to occupy/control territory).

I also don't understand why this didn't already resolve to yes, and is only at 19%. There has been an offensive action, and Trump says that the US will govern the country now. How is that not establishing control? For me a reason not to trade in this market, I don't trust the resolution.

@ErwinRossen Right, maybe there's a "hold ground for 30 days" implicit clause or something. But I'd like to know before I bet!

@FergusArgyll the manifold market creator is placing NO bets. I have no idea why but on the polymarket it resolves to, people are saying ‘read the clarification’ to people asking why it doesn’t resolve yes. I have no idea how you find the ‘clarification’ on polymarket

@LukeShadwell the clarification says this:

@brod thanks yeah I literally just found that and was just about to send it here hahah. They don’t really give any explanation as to why it doesn’t qualify, which is rough, sort of leaves the entire criteria of the resolution a mystery doesn’t it

@LukeShadwell yes. polymarket's criteria suck ass often. I do interpret attempts to establish control over land iraq-style as an unambiguous yes, but def would be scenarios where resolution is unclear

@brod yeah definitely scenarios that would be 100% a yes on poly market but they seem the least likely, hah. Feels like they should’ve made the market clearer with “all out invasion” or otherwise “mass ground invasion” or something. Or just gave clear criteria 😂

@ErwinRossen there are no US troops in Venezuela. Kinda hard to establish control like that. And regarding what Trump said, that in and of itself should answer your question.

@FergusArgyll this resolving yes would require US ground troop presence at the very least.

@FergusArgyll Wikipedia:

Starting on 7 October 2023, immediately after the Hamas-led attack on Israel, Israel began bombing the Gaza Strip. On 13 October, Israel began ground operations in the Gaza Strip, and on 27 October, a full-scale invasion was launched.

What has happened so far in Venezuela is much smaller in scale than what happened in Gaza immediately after October 7. At the moment we're nowhere near October 27 or even October 13.

@FergusArgyll and what could cause this to happen is someone reminding Donald Trump that he said the US was gonna "control" Venezuela.

@BrunoParga Not really sure what Gaza has to do with this. A single event that could be classified as an invasion doesn’t mean that every other event must be identical, or fit the meaning of the word in the exact same categories. It’s called a land invasion for a reason - to distinguish it from an invasion.

I’d be curious to know, if another country took military action in your own country without permission, bombed government targets all over your country and captured your head of state, how many foreign land troops you would need there to be before you’d call it an ‘invasion’.

@LukeShadwell I think you should stick to the question criterion of control.

Unsubscribing.

@BrunoParga Sure, I’m not going to reply any further either, but your arguments were all in reference to the market title. The “additional context” provided on polymarket after the fact is different to the actual meaning of the market. I’m glad I don’t bet on there, but essentially they have created a market with a different meaning to what they wanted it to have, and rather than accepting that meaning they’ve decided to change it to fit their meaning once the event has already taken place.

@ErwinRossen I think the value of this is going to go down because if what just HAPPENS did not qualify as an invasion it is hard to believe that anything would.

@MachiNi just wait for the deba'athification before posting this

@DanzoAlerantos I mean, yes, exactly.