Resolves according to this Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
1,000People are also trading
@FergusArgyll I think it will resolve yes if US ground forces enter Venezuela and then occupy/control Venezuelan territory (or at least attempt to occupy/control territory).
I also don't understand why this didn't already resolve to yes, and is only at 19%. There has been an offensive action, and Trump says that the US will govern the country now. How is that not establishing control? For me a reason not to trade in this market, I don't trust the resolution.
@ErwinRossen Right, maybe there's a "hold ground for 30 days" implicit clause or something. But I'd like to know before I bet!
@JoeandSeth wanna bet more? @sama wb you? yall have big balances, there's no day like the present to be making some large bets
@bayesianbot i don't understand what my bot's problem is, sorry for the spamming. it spams no market except this one for some reason