Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Venezuela initiates a military attack against the United States (including US territory, military installations, or personnel) before January 31, 2026. This includes any offensive military action such as airstrikes, missile launches, naval attacks, or armed incursions. The attack must originate from or be directed by the Venezuelan government or its military forces.

Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets and official US government statements. Defensive actions or responses to US military strikes do not count as attacks on the US.

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched airstrikes on multiple locations across Northern Venezuela, including the capital city of Caracas. US officials confirmed that Trump had ordered strikes on Venezuelan targets, including military facilities. Trump claimed on a 4:21 am Truth Social post that the US has captured Maduro and his wife.

Militarily, the Venezuelan armed forces would be defeated in open battle: Its navy cannot contest sea control, its air force cannot contest air superiority, and its army lacks the readiness to face a modern mechanized force. According to the Global Fire Power index, Venezuela's military is ranked 50th out of 145 countries, while the United States is ranked number 1.

Considerations

Experts, analysts and current and former government officials stated that the assets deployed were insufficient for an invasion and that they viewed an invasion as unlikely. Venezuela's military capabilities are severely limited relative to the US, making a direct attack highly improbable. Maduro has appeared to strike a conciliatory tone, suggesting there was room for cooperation between Caracas and Washington, and stated that he wanted peace and an amicable relationship between the two countries.