Resolves yes if the United States conducts any of the following military actions against Venezuela after 11:59 PM ET on January 3rd, 2026 and before 11:59 PM ET on January 31st, 2026:

Qualifying actions:

Airstrikes (including drone strikes) on Venezuelan territory

Naval strikes within Venezuelan territorial waters

Naval strikes on Venezuelan Navy vessels in international waters

Any US military personnel on Venezuelan soil (including special operations raids)

Strikes on Venezuelan embassies or consulates in third countries

Targeted killings of Venezuelan government officials outside Venezuela

Strikes on civilian vessels commandeered for military purposes within Venezuelan waters

Non-qualifying actions:

Cyberattacks

Strikes on paramilitary, militia, or cartel-affiliated vessels (unless commandeered civilian vessels in Venezuelan waters)

Covert actions that are not acknowledged (see below)

Actions by proxy forces without US personnel involvement

Actions not listed clearly in qualifying or non-qualifying actions:

I will attempt to resolve actions that fall clearly outside these buckets according the the spirit of the question, which is if a reasonable person would consider it a military action. Actions taken by US armed forces will be much more likely to resolve yes within this criteria. I may issue clarifications if it is clear an edge case is in play.

Resolution standard:

For overt military actions: Resolves YES based on official US AND Venezuelan government statements, or multiple unconflicted credible reports from major news media.

For covert actions: Resolves YES only if BOTH (a) a US federal government official acknowledges the action (including presidential social media posts or relevant agency admission) AND (b) multiple unconflicted credible reports from major news media corroborate it.

Conflicting reports:

If credible news media reports contradict each other regarding whether a qualifying military action occurred AND one of the Venezuelan and United States governments has not confirmed the military action, I will wait one week after the resolution period ends to see if the contradiction is resolved. If after one week:

The contradiction is resolved: resolve accordingly

The contradiction persists AND one the US or Venezuelan government has acknowledged the action: resolves 50%

The contradiction persists with no government acknowledgment: resolves no

I will not trade on this market.