Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES if:
US Armed Forces enter Venezuela without being invited by the Venezuelan government, AND
Nicolas Maduro loses the power of the presidency
If Maduro dies or flees the country, he is assumed to no longer be in charge
Market will resolve NO if:
By end of April 2026, Maduro is still generally accepted as president, OR
US troops have not set foot on Venezuelan sovereign land
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Maduro is killed by the CIA (or other non-military means), the market resolves NO because the CIA is not considered US military for purposes of this market.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Special Operations Forces (SOF) raids: A SOF raid where special forces extract Maduro from Venezuela would satisfy requirement #1 (US Armed Forces entering Venezuela without invitation), provided there is verifiable evidence that special forces were used (not just CIA or other intelligence groups).
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait for confirmation that Delcy Rodriguez has been installed as interim president before resolving YES, even though US military forces (Delta Forces) have been confirmed to have entered Venezuela and removed Maduro.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For requirement #1 (US Armed Forces entering Venezuela without invitation): The purpose or name of the operation is not relevant. What matters is whether US military personnel entered Venezuela uninvited, regardless of whether it's labeled as a "law enforcement operation" or any other designation.
Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Evidence for US military involvement: Both Reuters and CBS News reported that the Pentagon confirmed Delta Forces were used in the operation to remove Maduro. These confirmations were made to news organizations off the record.
Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Functional loss of power is sufficient: Even if some government officials still consider Maduro the rightful president, the market will resolve YES if Maduro has functionally lost presidential power (e.g., if the Supreme Court orders the vice president to assume presidential powers and someone else is exercising those powers).
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People are also trading
Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]
https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g
It has been confirmed that US military forces, specifically Delta Forces did enter Venezuela uninvited and removed President Maduro from the country. This satisfies requirement #1. Since that time, vice president Delcy Rodriguez has been installed as the interim president. This satisfies requirement #2, Nicolas Maduro loses the power of the presidency. He is not currently the president, therefore he has lost the presidency.
@DrewReynolds Venezuela’s Interim Leader Defies Trump and Calls Maduro the ‘Only President’
President Trump said that Venezuela’s new leader, Delcy Rodríguez, would help the United States run Venezuela. She quickly said the opposite.
@DrewReynolds don’t listen to anything array says. You decide yourself. This user has 10+ accounts dedicated to harassing creators to change resolutions by giving the appearance multiple people agree. Don’t listen, it’s one person only.
@DrewReynolds may I ask your evidence of "US military forces, specifically Delta Forces" - it needed for another market where issue is if any military boots stood at Venezuela's soil at all:
https://manifold.markets/CornCasting/us-troops-on-venezuelan-soil-before
we will wait for confirmation of this point before resolving yes.
@1bets both Reuters and CBS news reported that the pentagon confirmed that Delta forces were used in the operation. These reports were made to the news organizations off the record.
The operation yesterday was a law enforcement operation, not military Invasion:
"US carried out a “large scale strike against Venezuela” and that President Nicolas Maduro and his wife have been captured and removed from the country.
“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country,” he wrote on Truth Social.
“This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement"
@DrewReynolds I believe that title is a kind if contradict the statement.
But whatever it's still controversial.
Invasion is illegal and requires US Senate approval.
While law enforcement operation is OK.
@aRray What are you smoking? Are you high right now?
The operation's scale and methods far exceed any reasonable definition of law enforcement:
Military Assets Deployed: Over 150 aircraft including bombers, fighter jets, and helicopters
Special Operations Forces: Delta Force operators and 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment conducted the raid
Multiple Target Locations: Strikes occurred across Caracas and three additional Venezuelan states, including a military helicopter base
Infrastructure Damage: Power grid disruptions, military facilities disabled, and civilian casualties reported
Also you're only partially correct an invasion requires congressional authorization. The Constitution requires Congress (both House and Senate) to declare war, not just Senate approval. The President deliberately chose not to notify Congress, stating "Congress has a tendency to leak."
The Trump admin are using Panama 1989 as a historical precedent which Bush styled as law enforcement to capture Noriega. And everybody today calls Panama 1989 a military invasion and is widely condemned as having been illegal.
It being law enforcement and therefore ok is blatantly legally false. The US is a signatory to the UN Charter.
UN Charter Article 2(4): Prohibits use of force without Security Council authorization
Sovereignty Violation: "One country cannot lawfully overthrow the leader of another, nor can it try them in its domestic courts"
No Extradition Treaty: The US has no legal agreement with Venezuela for such transfers
None of this is surprising though. The US has violated international law many times, sometimes I'd guess even for good reason. But living in some squeaky-dream LSD fantasy that the US doesn't break the law and a lot makes me laugh.
Trump COMPLETELY 100% violated his own country's laws, but I think this outcome is a good thing for Venezuela and its people. The US is applying the Ker-Frisbie doctrine. i.e. try someone in court legally even if they were clearly illegally abducted to get them to court.
Of course a leader's propensity to break laws for good outcomes can lead to worse outcomes later if it sets too strong a precedent that lawbreaking is ok. But most Americans seem to be far past giving 2 shits about that downsteam risk.
Maduro is still a President.
Military Invasion - under question.
Maduro is still a nominal Lider of Venezuela
@aRray the Supreme Court of Venezuela has ordered the vice president to assume presidential powers. Even though many people in the government still consider President Maduro to be the rightful president of Venezuela, functionally he has lost that power. The current person who holds presidential power is currently the vice president Delcy Rodriguez. Both requirements to resolve the question. Yes have now been satisfied.
This market is related to: https://manifold.markets/brod/us-invades-venezuela-by-january-31s
If USA will not invade Venezuela, I buy NO
I'm very curious if there is inside support from Venezuela for this. That would be a cool conspiracy.
Note: Links to attack video's here:
https://manifold.markets/uair01/credible-evidence-of-prearranged-lo?r=dWFpcjAx
Thoughts on whether a SOF raid counts? Boots on soil, but I guess it's not an invasion
@JoshuaTindall we are seeking verifiable evidence that special forces were used in the extraction of Venezuela’s president. If this is the case, and not just CIA or other intelligence groups, then requirement #1 will be satisfied..
@CornCasting I guess that is a possibility. If it did happen, CIA are not considered US military, and so it would be resolved no