Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES if:
US Armed Forces enter Venezuela without being invited by the Venezuelan government, AND
Nicolas Maduro loses the power of the presidency
If Maduro dies or flees the country, he is assumed to no longer be in charge
Market will resolve NO if:
By end of April 2026, Maduro is still generally accepted as president, OR
US troops have not set foot on Venezuelan sovereign land
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Maduro is killed by the CIA (or other non-military means), the market resolves NO because the CIA is not considered US military for purposes of this market.
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@CornCasting I guess that is a possibility. If it did happen, CIA are not considered US military, and so it would be resolved no
@DrewReynolds care to expand on the criteria for this a little more? what if the US military launches a couple of strikes on narcoterrorists within Venezuelan waters, and publicly pressures Maduro to step down, and he leaves power. Would that resolve YES, for example?
@bens this question will be resolved yes, if US Armed Forces enter Venezuela without being invited to by the Venezuelan government, and the current president Nicolas Maduro, loses the power of the presidency. If Maduro dies, or flees the country, then it would be assumed that he is no longer in charge. If by the end of April 2026, he still generally accepted as the president of Venezuela or if US troops have not set foot on Venezuelan sovereign land then it will be resolved no