Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Same market but with resolution at the end of 2024:

Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel meeting most of the criteria in the list below by the end of the year, or other indications that would lead a reasonable person to infer that Israel as complete control over the territory. I will employ my own judgment, supplemented by input from other stakeholders, in cases where there is ambiguity.

This list was added here to elucidate some people who were arguing that israel already had control of Gaza at the begining of the conflict. It as generated lots of controversy and apprehension in the betters. It serves as a guide and not as a checkbox I will be strictly following at resolution time. if there is still something I should further clarify please add some more comments. I am trying to go by some sort of common sense definition of political (not only military) control, including being able to defend and provide for the population in an organized and CONTROLLED faction.

"De Facto" Control Over a Territory implies:

1) Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws [while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes (this is optional)].

2) Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory.

3) Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity.

4) Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy.

5) International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management.

Possibilities that have generated confusion and their resolution:
1) Distopic military dictatorship style control, resolves YES.
In this case criteria only the citizen participation section of criteria 1 would not be enforced.
2) Terror attacks by Hamaz are happening in a otherwhise controlled territory, resolves YES

In this case the internal safety section of criteria 2 would be lacking but everything else would still lead me to resolve it as YES.

3) Hamaz having a section of Gazan territory still in its control, resolves NO.
4) Population self governing (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.

5) Population in anarchy (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.

Also I should refer that at the end I will look for information on wikipedia, major news outlets and other similar reputable sources to make my decision. I will also take into consideration market discussions in case of possible ambiguities.

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bought Ṁ100 of YES


Netanyahu is saying no Palestinian Authority for Gaza. That leaves very few remaining possibilities. Either Egypt changes its mind real quick, or Israel accepts a gigantic UN mission after saying they were infiltrated by Hamas, or Israel fully occupies Gaza for whatever nation rebuilding or ethnic cleansing happens next.

@Panfilo but only one and a half month to the end of the year!

predicted NO
predicted NO

@NADZOR They’re not going to be controlling any of the functions of government in any way. Simply going to eradicate Hamas and return it to the Palestinian Authority that already runs the West Bank.

@NADZOR Well, should invest in NO then. I would but I made a commitment not to trade on this market.

@NADZOR Haven't traded in this market, but isn't this a self-defeating argument? If they "hand over" control to the PLO, then they've gained control of it in the first place.

@Domer interestingly for this market the relevant bit is having control at the end of the year. If they get and give to the the PLO before new years that means this market would resolve to NO.
I'm using the "at" and not the "by" preposition.

@JoaoPedroSantos ah right, good point!

@NADZOR "Simply"....

bought Ṁ29 of NO

I think this market (and a lot of manifold) appears very confident that there will be a large, fast and effective push.

I’m a little more uncertain - there will be a lot of international pressure on Israel not to escalate, along with military pressure from Iran, and if we know anything from recent military invasions these things take longer and are always more difficult than imagined.

Hence I’m NO for now… it could happen but I think it’s much less likely than the market is painting.

@AshleyHart Gaza is tiny, the IDF has more forces than russia at the start of the invasion, and israel is out for blood, but I see your point.

predicted NO

@JoaoPedroSantos The advantage inside Gaza is with Hamas, and these are not regular IDF mostly but reserves who are not training like the US Army Reserve one weekend every month. Because of mandatory service many of the folks going to fight haven't been trained in years.

@BTE They still have a minimum of 3 years of formal training, also I guess they are going to mix more and less experience troops, not saying it is going to be pretty but the force scale is evily tilted in the IDF favor.

predicted NO

I think @JoaoPedroSantos is doing a fine job running this market so far and I'm not sure I understand the confusion/anger.

Couple questions:

1) How would this resolve if Israel has more or less total military control over the Gaza strip and is facilitating/overseeing UN aid, but there's no real social structure of governance or a "military dictatorship" set up so to speak, but it's also not obviously "anarchy"? Like, Hamas no longer has direct control of government affairs but the vestigial social government services from pre-October still exist largely.

2) How would this resolve if Israel has 1, 2, and 3, but not 4 or 5?


Israel needs to have control over the entire Gaza strip not Israel some part and UN the rest, with this in mind;

For item 3 I can say that I would consider basic necessities to be provided as a requirement, water, electricity and garbage collection, as for healthcare and education I think they would not need to be properly implemented as long as there were signals they would be implemented in the future, some statement from Israel or reputable news sources Israel is working on it.

I could go without item 4 in this scenario.

As for item 5, there needs to be agreement between reputable news sources about Israel controlling the territory, this is the kind of international recognition I would consider a bare minimum

Probability here seems to be low, I want to figure out if it is because people think there is limited time or israel is not going to proceed for control.

predicted YES

@JoaoPedroSantos I’d bet Israel will have a degree of military control at this price, but not that it will get a civil administration up and running in time.

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