resolve YES if the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip by Israel and begins administering it, even if they don't have complete control over it due to Hamas.
if the announced date of control is after the end of the year, this resolves NO
Related: /strutheo/will-the-usa-take-control-of-the-ga-9U9A5IAAOn
1,000People are also trading
@HillaryClinton on your argument "I agree USA has been given control formally, but we don't see this in the ground yet"
We bet different things (“to be given control” as in the market description, vs. “control on the ground” as in your bets). Let me use an analogy to illustrate.
Manifold market: “Will Trump recover control of the US by November 2024?”
After votes are counted, a YES holder suggest “resolves YES”. A NO holder replies “he doesn't have ground control. Tariffs are not in place, government size remains the same, nothing really happened in real world yet. It resolves NO”
One moment is when “control/power is formally given” and other when it is “seen in the ground”. There is a transition period between both.
@GazDownright Israel can only give the level of control that they had in February 2025 when this market was created:
ilegal military presence in some areas
the capacity to block movements of people and goods
US got (formally) much more control than this already, from Israel and UN SC resolution
As I understand the UN Charter, based on articles 25 and 103, UN SC resolutions are legally above any treaty
https://legal.un.org/repertory/art103.shtml
For sure the tricky part here is:
Palestine is not a full right member of the UN
The current Hamas government is not recognized by anyone
@GazDownright yep, I know. This is the market description we have
You can approach it from different ways:
Focused on the title "Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025" -> in my mind, resolves YES
Based on the description --> resolves YES
"the United States is formally given control of the Gaza Strip" --> nothing is more formal than UN SC resolution, in international law
"by Israel" --> tricky part, as Israel can't really give something that they don't have. Two options:
A: If you literally go for it, read my comment
B. If you assume it is problematic and has to be ignored, and assumed simply that "USA is given control", it also resolves YES
"begins administering it"
see my comment
about
the right combination of Palestinian authorities
"The Palestinian Authority issued a statement welcoming the resolution, and said it is ready to take part in its implementation. Diplomats said the authority's endorsement of the resolution last week was key to preventing a Russian veto."
Reuters, Nov 18th
... is PA the right combination of Palestinian authorities? At this stage, I don't see any other alternative.
This was also recognized by most UN Security Council representatives, from Russia to Sierra Leone and many others, who mentioned explicitly in their speeches at the Nov 17th session that the PA approval was key for them to vote YES or abstention, despite their reservations about giving so much power to the US.
@HillaryClinton the market description says explicitly: “even if they don't have complete control over it due to Hamas.” since day 1
I think this is the most clear point about the question resolution 😅
@MiguelLM I changed my position. This resolution does give de facto control to the United States.
@GammaLaser did you already have the chance to read it? It was only published in the UN site today. At first sight it seems to be almost the same as the drafts leaked last week, but I didn't have the time to go through it.
https://docs.un.org/en/S/RES/2803(2025)
@GammaLaser I've seen the full security council meeting live and my impression is that most diplomats also think the resolution gave unprecedented amount of power to the US, without UN veto/oversight
https://manifold.markets/MiguelLM/do-believe-un-sc-resolution-2803-ga
For sure this is not the same kind of colonial arrangement you see in early XX century, but we are in 2025. It is quite impressive.
@MiguelLM You're right.
The big problem is, I don't see the USA controlling anything in action. The only one controlling Gaza is maybe the Israel, and that's only Northern Gaza. The USA is not controlling the Israeli troop movement.
@HillaryClinton so,
we can say a YES for "Control given in paper"
but NO for "Real control already in place in the ground"
We may see some more control in the ground when the US forces to open some corridors, to replace IDF by ISF in some areas, to allow humanitarian aid, to start the preparations of transitional palestinian technocratic government, to collect funds for reconstruction, etc.
We can have by 31st December, for this market:
A) keep discussing for YES or NO
B) a partial resolution. Would this work for you?
I talk directly to you because you and I alone have probably >80% of the total shares in this market
@MiguelLM I see this resolving No, unless USA personnel are on the ground controlling Gaza. Or Trump was given control of the IDF.
Trump was given control of the IDF
IDF stopped killing when US army told them to do it, not based on Netanyahu instructions
The real ceasefire started when US took the driver’s seat in Israel.
The Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) opened by US Central Command (CENTCOM) in southern Israel on October 17.
You can compare the figures:
A) After Netanyahu public asked IDF to start ceasefire: 83 casualties in about a week, killing almost every day
B) After US commanders come to Israel and took the lead: more than 30 days with zero events, but with a couple of exceptions
Declarations of IDF officials
“Israel has been pushed to the margins at the Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) in Kiryat Gat — the nerve center of the international effort to oversee Gaza’s fragile ceasefire — as the United States assumes near-total control of the operation, senior Israeli officials told Times of Israel.”
U.S. Takes Commanding Role in Gaza Ceasefire Operations, Leaving Israel on the Sidelines
See this opinion poll by the Israel Democracy Institute titled
Israelis Think US Administration Has Greater Influence on Israel's Security Decisions Than Israeli Government
Methodology in: https://en.idi.org.il/articles/62072
Draft UN resolution grants US and partners broad mandate to govern Gaza, provide security
Let us see how the timing works
In my view this paragraph of the draft meets the "be given control":
"Welcomes the establishment of the Board of Peace (BoP) as a transitional governance administration with international legal personality that will set the framework and coordinate funding for the redevelopment of Gaza pursuant to the Comprehensive Plan, until such time as the Palestinian Authority has satisfactorily completed its reform program, the satisfaction of which shall be acceptable to the BoP;"
The scope is really broad:
"international legal personality and transactional authorities for the performance of its functions, including:
(1) the implementation of a transitional governance administration, including the supervising and supporting of a Palestinian technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians from the Strip—as envisioned by the Final Communique of the Emergency Summit Conference of the Extraordinary Arab Summit—which shall be responsible for day-to-day operations of Gaza’s civil service and administration;
(2) the reconstruction of Gaza and of economic recovery programs;
(3) the coordination and supporting of and delivery of public services and humanitarian assistance in Gaza;
(4) any measures to facilitate the movement of persons in and out of Gaza, in a manner consistent with the Comprehensive Plan; and
(5) any such additional tasks as may be necessary to support and implement the Comprehensive Plan;"
I don't see how it can be argued that controlling the local government, economic recovery programs, military control, border control, and "any additional necessary tasks" won't meet any reasonable threshold for "to be given control". The only question mark is about this control being lead by US, but shared with others.
@strutheo your views?
The final text in UN Security Council is expected to be voted in one or two weeks.
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1985520826142376059?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1985520826142376059%7Ctwgr%5E3fa3af1f9256ab4ad93fd058a85f1eb8c1e33942%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fliveblog_entry%2Fdraft-un-resolution-said-to-grant-us-and-partners-broad-mandate-to-govern-gaza-provide-security%2F
@HillaryClinton besides this latest piece of paper, there were additional steps towards controlling Gaza. You don't go overnight from 0 to 100 in a war territory.
Government structure
There is already a draft. There were several discussions with Palestine Authority. There are org charts.
Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA)
Government names
They already had several meetings to review names, candidates and vetoes. There are some lists of names floating around.
Troops withdrawal
IDF withdrawal to yellow line as milestone 1
Economic development
They already got commitments from many countries
The World Bank already agreed to help manage and channel funds through a dedicated trust fund under the Board of Peace architecture.
Palestinian Authority reforms started
Such as commissioning the drafting of a new constitution
Hamas isolation
Hamas used to enjoy some de facto support by regional allies. This is gone