Resolves YES if legislation signed into law by a governor (or passed via veto override) institutes an official temporary freeze or halt on approving/permitting new data centers (or data centers exceeding a specific megawatt threshold) statewide.
Resolves NO if no such statewide measure is enacted into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Local/county-level moratoria or non-binding legislative study task forces do not qualify.
The measure must be enacted after August 16th 2026 and before December 31st 2026
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Past this deadline, the size of any Texas action is the open question. Of 18.5 GW at nine listed companies, about a fifth is approved or outside ERCOT's Batch Zero study by their own account, so most of it would be in reach. Table by company: https://equibles.com/research/texas-data-center-moratorium-which-stocks-are-exposed-and-how-much?utm_source=manifold
One thing for the 20%: Texas can't resolve this, even after Tuesday's result. Its new governor takes office in January 2027, after this market's deadline, so any moratorium there lands too late. And Riot, with its power already connected, isn't treating it as a threat: asked about the result on its November 4 call, it said of Rockdale and Corsicana, "There's not additional approval needed to execute on developments here." Data: Riot's Q3 call, processed by Equibles: https://equibles.com/stocks/riot/calls/2026-q3?utm_source=manifold
Could you clarify the final-day cutoff? The main rule says before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, but the last line says before December 31st. Would otherwise qualifying legislation signed during December 31, before 11:59 PM ET, count as YES? I have no position here; checking the exact window before comparing related markets.
This seems to fit the standards: "Governor Kathy Hochul today signed an Executive Order to create the nation’s first moratorium on new hyperscale data centers"
@whoisthis the criteria require legislation enacted after August 16, 2026. New York’s moratorium was imposed by executive order on July 14, so it does not qualify
@Yoae I assume the criteria were worded explicitly to exclude the New York executive order?