Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?
32
100Ṁ3149
2029
31%
chance

Just for being trans includes:

Asserting a gender identity or gender related medical need in any context

Priorly legal political or free speech activity centered around trans issues

Using or possessing hormones

Obtaining or pursuing surgery, or having had surgery

Being physically present in any previously legal public space

Style of dress or mannerism

Detention includes prison, jail, mental institutions, camps, and black sites.

"People" means more than five reputable reports with additional unverified or assumed reports.

  • Update 2025-01-28 (PST): - Trans youth are included in the definition of "trans people." (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hormone possession clarification:

    • Estrogen: Incarceration for buying or possessing estrogen qualifies as inclusion because estrogen is not currently a scheduled substance.

    • Testosterone: Incarceration for buying or possessing testosterone does not qualify.

  • Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): State-level action clarification:

    • By default, actions taken at the state level are not included.

    • They will only be considered if there is a credible link establishing Trump as an instigating party.

    • Such cases may be subject to debate before final resolution.

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Federal Movement Resolution Update

    • Federal Movement Sufficient: Any federal movement related to the incarceration or institutionalization of trans people will resolve the market in favor if there is a credible link to Trump.

    • This includes actions taken by or through Trump appointees.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy