Will Manifold think Gemini 3 is a big step forward for AI?
4
100Ṁ31Dec 31
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to the PERCENTAGE of a poll that opens (roughly) when Gemini 3 is released and is open for a week. The poll will be:
Is Gemini 3 a big step forwards for AI or is it basically the same as the other current top models? (Choose whichever feels closest)
Big step forward
Basically the same
Don't know / see results
Resolution will be to % of first option out of first plus second. Third option will not affect result.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
9% chance
Will Gemini 3 Pro be better than ChatGPT 5 Thinking in math?
59% chance
Gemini 3 Pro scores over 72 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
40% chance
Gemini 3.0 released in November 2025?
55% chance
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
35% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?
26% chance
Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?
82% chance
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
34% chance
Will Manifold stop using AI to make my questions worse by the end of 2025?
34% chance