Will Manifold think Gemini 3 is a big step forward for AI?
111
100Ṁ6810
resolved Nov 26
Resolved as
48%

Resolves to the PERCENTAGE of a poll that opens (roughly) when Gemini 3 is released and is open for a week. The poll will be:

Is Gemini 3 a big step forwards for AI or is it basically the same as the other current top models? (Choose whichever feels closest)

  1. Big step forward

  2. Basically the same

  3. Don't know / see results

Resolution will be to % of first option out of first plus second. Third option will not affect result.

  • Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll for resolution has been created and is now live at the linked market. The poll will remain open for approximately one week from the time of this comment.

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One small step for bot, one giant leap for botkind

bought Ṁ500 NO

What is supposed to be a big step forward? No new modalities, architecture, or practical results

@AffineTyped benches are all within the range of Claude and 5.1

sold Ṁ13 NO

@AffineTyped Whatever you feel it to be, this is to try and gauge rough vibes / perceptions of the model rather than specific advancements or benchmarks

@Jasonb Yeah, I suspect it won't be very informative because of the unbounded scale

https://www.lesswrong.com/s/M3TJ2fTCzoQq66NBJ/p/5u5THLyRkTpPHiaG5

@SqrtMinusOne It's certainly far from an ideal measurement, but I thought it would be interesting to add to the pile

bought Ṁ20 YES

@AffineTyped wanna bet more around 20%?

https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/is-gemini-3-a-big-step-forwards-for

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