Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)