If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
6
1kṀ379
2029
34%
chance

See https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed and similar questions for AGI. The criteria is that one of them will resolve YES.

I don't see a lot of singularity questions but there is this: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/singularity-by-2030.

Will we get AGI before 2029?
57% chance. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2029 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2029: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-79ed68d6492b@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89 Other point of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid
AI
Technical AI Timelines
Manifold
AGI
Singularity Timelines
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Manifold think Gemini 3 is a big step forward for AI?
-13% 1d14% chance
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
35% chance
Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
35% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?
26% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?
23% chance
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
6% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
73% chance
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy