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MANIFOLD
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
46
Ṁ218Ṁ1.9k
2028
50%
chance

When this market resolves YES:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?

Resolves to Manifold poll. Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.

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Technology
AGI
Manifold
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filled a Ṁ10 YES at 64% order

I think this should resolve to N/A because they will actually all be dead before it resolves at all.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The linked market cannot resolve YES. It is a numeric.

@KongoLandwalker i know i just dont care

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 28% order

got a 10k limit order at the market price

Comment hidden

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2046?
82% chance
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
31% chance
Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
31% chance
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?
23% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?
23% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
11% chance
By when will we have AGI?