When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved? | Manifold

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

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When this market resolves YES:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?

Resolves to Manifold poll. Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I think this should resolve to N/A because they will actually all be dead before it resolves at all.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The linked market cannot resolve YES. It is a numeric.

@KongoLandwalker i know i just dont care

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 28% order

got a 10k limit order at the market price

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Will Manifold users declare that weak AGI has been achieved during or before February 2025?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

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