Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any Qwen 3.5 model variant achieves a score higher than 48 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (https://artificialanalysis.ai/). Resolution will be determined by checking the official Artificial Analysis website for published Intelligence Index scores for Qwen 3.5 models. The market resolves NO if no Qwen 3.5 variant reaches a score above 48, or if no Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score is published for Qwen 3.5 models by March 31, 2026.

Background

Gemini 3 Pro achieves a score of 48 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, a composite benchmark evaluating models across reasoning, knowledge, mathematics, and coding. Gemini 3 Pro debuted +3 points above GPT-5.1 in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.

Qwen 3.5 was released on February 16, 2026, with the headline model Qwen3.5-397B-A17B packing 397 billion total parameters while activating only 17 billion per forward pass. Alibaba positions Qwen 3.5 as a direct challenger to Western frontier models like GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, and Gemini 3 Pro — claiming superiority across 80% of evaluated benchmark categories. Qwen 3.5 scores 83.6 on LiveCodeBench v6, 91.3 on AIME26, and 88.4 on GPQA Diamond — reportedly outperforming GPT-5.2 and Claude Opus 4.5 on 80% of evaluated categories.

Considerations

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores are not yet published for Qwen 3.5 models as of the market creation date. The index evaluates models on a specific methodology that may differ from other benchmarks Alibaba has published. Independent verification of Qwen 3.5's performance on the AA Intelligence Index is still pending.