Wiil manifold.love ("manifold dating") switch to "maintenance mode" or shut down in 2024?

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resolved Mar 11

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"Shut down" is not meant here in the sense that it ceases to exist - it is fairly low cost to keep it running.

"Shut down" is meant in the sense of "active development for the project stops - no new features are being shipped out - developer time is only for maintenance if any" and " there's very little push to develop it further"

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bought Ṁ4,000 YES1y

Explicitly stated in the latest Above The Fold:

“Manifold.Love is going into maintenance mode while we focus on our core product.”

@firstuserhere

How long does dev have to stop for?

@MartinRandall @firstuserhere the last significant change was over 3 weeks ago and there don't seem to be any new features planned

bought Ṁ100 YES1y

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Standup-8c96f4102c39432dbaed2e9a72dc556a

@wasabipesto wow okay

How are you defining “shut down”? The URL will likely still be valid and presumably would point back here if .love was abandoned. If user profiles still exist? If dev work has occurred recently? If there is a single DAU?

I ask as I expect it to wither on the vine rather than be hard shut down.

@Noit active development stops

@firstuserhere Maintenance mode seems very different from the meaning of "shut down"

@JamesGrugett i changed title to reflect that

predictedNO 1y

@firstuserhere Hm I definitely made bets based on the original title.

@Marsteralex Then this is your chance to make new bets on the revamped title. It's not as if the content of the market has changed. The title change is merely decorative.

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When will manifold love shut down?

When will manifold shut down?

When will Manifold shut down?(READ DESC)

2% chance

When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

66% chance

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

79% chance

How many women <= 25 y.o. will manifold.love have as users at the end of 2025?

145

Will Manifold's function that sets the closing date automatically work by 2024?

53% chance

Will I log into manifold 10 years from now?

38% chance

Will I log into manifold 4 years from now?

46% chance

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

🏅 Top traders

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