Resolves YES if @RachelWeinberg and I get legally married; NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely (eg one of us marries someone else).
We've been dating for just over 3 months. See also:
"in leui of gifts the happy couple would like NO bets on this market."
@JoshuaAnderson I bought no, FYI. Manifold said I bought yes because I bought the wrong direction first. Wishing you guys success!
Related markets:
"Come on and open up your heart. Come on dream on, baby dream on."
- Bruce Springsteen - Dream Baby Dream
I have created a duplicate of this market which may have arbitrage opportunities.
"Hope springs eternal in the human breast:
Man never is, but always to be, blest."
-Alexander Pope
Techies who get on very often do marry the first person they date seriously. Buying tentatively at 45.
If Austin is similar to me I think he's overconfident about his first relationship
It is taking every ethical bone in my body to resist the urge to duplicate this market
@ForrestTaylor It's fine if you are extremely confident your partner is and will be happy with it, but I think your prior should be low on that.
@NathanpmYoung No, my urge is to duplicate it EXACTLY- that is, I also want to find out the probability that Rachel Weinberg, whoever that is, will marry me.
Why? It would be very funny.
I'm not sure I see why it would be unethical in this context. As long as they don't object to it, of course.
@RachelWeinberg what do you think of this? :)
(Also while this is fun, let's all be prepared to be very gracious if this market resolves no and not talk about it too much - the last thing you need during a breakup is 20 nerds disputing resolution criteria)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)