Resolves YES if @RachelWeinberg and I get legally married; NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely (eg one of us marries someone else).
We've been dating for just over 3 months. See also:
"in leui of gifts the happy couple would like NO bets on this market."
Hope I lose my bet. :) No inside info, just base rates.
Also, apparently you can't delete or edit comments? 😂
I have created a duplicate of this market which may have arbitrage opportunities.
"Hope springs eternal in the human breast:
Man never is, but always to be, blest."
Techies who get on very often do marry the first person they date seriously. Buying tentatively at 45.
If Austin is similar to me I think he's overconfident about his first relationship
betting against on base rates -- sorry!
It is taking every ethical bone in my body to resist the urge to duplicate this market
(Also while this is fun, let's all be prepared to be very gracious if this market resolves no and not talk about it too much - the last thing you need during a breakup is 20 nerds disputing resolution criteria)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)
awww, she's betting yes (I know some of you are sometimes concerned about this stuff, but quite clearly both parties in this market are on board with it) https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-rachelweinberg-marry-me https://t.co/9ZBE90fEYE