Austin avatar
Austin
closes Jan 17, 2028
Will @RachelWeinberg marry me?
56%
chance

Resolves YES if @RachelWeinberg and I get legally married; NO if we're not on track by market close, or major events make this very unlikely (eg one of us marries someone else).

We've been dating for just over 3 months. See also:

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

"in leui of gifts the happy couple would like NO bets on this market."

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunberg
is predicting YES at 64%

An unprecedented opportunity for "pump and dump" 😅😬

GiftedNater avatar

Yes unless she meets me

JoshuaAnderson avatar
Joshua Anderson
bought Ṁ30 of YES

Hope I lose my bet. :) No inside info, just base rates.

JoshuaAnderson avatar
Joshua Anderson
is predicting NO at 64%

@JoshuaAnderson I bought no, FYI. Manifold said I bought yes because I bought the wrong direction first. Wishing you guys success!

JoshuaAnderson avatar
Joshua Anderson
is predicting NO at 64%

Also, apparently you can't delete or edit comments? 😂

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
bought Ṁ0 of NO
ChrisLakin avatar
Chris Lakin
bought Ṁ30 of NO

base rates!

ForrestTaylor avatar

Related markets:

"Come on and open up your heart. Come on dream on, baby dream on."
- Bruce Springsteen - Dream Baby Dream

DavidChee avatar

@ForrestTaylor LOL but why does austin have a 0.7% higher chance than Rachel

ForrestTaylor avatar

I have created a duplicate of this market which may have arbitrage opportunities.


"Hope springs eternal in the human breast:
Man never is, but always to be, blest."
-Alexander Pope

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentine
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Techies who get on very often do marry the first person they date seriously. Buying tentatively at 45.

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen
bought Ṁ100 of NO

If Austin is similar to me I think he's overconfident about his first relationship

sophiawisdom avatar

betting against on base rates -- sorry!

noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
bought Ṁ150 of NO

@sophiawisdom Doing the same - I don’t have any negative inside info!

derikk avatar
Derik K
bought Ṁ150 of NO

Nothing personal, just arbing ;)

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor
sold Ṁ20 of NO

It is taking every ethical bone in my body to resist the urge to duplicate this market

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 71%

@ForrestTaylor It's fine if you are extremely confident your partner is and will be happy with it, but I think your prior should be low on that.

ForrestTaylor avatar

@NathanpmYoung No, my urge is to duplicate it EXACTLY- that is, I also want to find out the probability that Rachel Weinberg, whoever that is, will marry me.
Why? It would be very funny.

jack avatar

I'm not sure I see why it would be unethical in this context. As long as they don't object to it, of course.

@RachelWeinberg what do you think of this? :)

RachelWeinberg avatar

@jack haha fine by me :)

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
bought Ṁ80 of YES

(Also while this is fun, let's all be prepared to be very gracious if this market resolves no and not talk about it too much - the last thing you need during a breakup is 20 nerds disputing resolution criteria)

MartinRandall avatar

@NathanpmYoung They were on a break!

RobiRahman avatar
Robi Rahman
bought Ṁ25 of NO

Wow, this escalated quickly. (Good luck - I hope I lose my bet!)

NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
is predicting NO at 78%
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere
bought Ṁ50 of NO
ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Nathan is in SF (say hi 👋)

awww, she's betting yes (I know some of you are sometimes concerned about this stuff, but quite clearly both parties in this market are on board with it) https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-rachelweinberg-marry-me https://t.co/9ZBE90fEYE