When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed? | Manifold

When will vision-only level 4 self-driving be widely deployed?

2

1kṀ254

2034

April 21, 2029

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

47%

Before 2027

58%

Before 2028

59%

Before 2029

62%

Before 2030

63%

Before 2031

65%

Before 2032

66%

Before 2033

Lots to clarify here but the spirit is kind of, is Elon Musk correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving?

FAQ

1. Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?

No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment than that to count for this market.

2. How wide is "widely deployed"?

TBD. We'll discuss in the comments. We can pick a threshold in terms of number of cars, number of autonomous miles, or pick some other operationalization.

[ignore all the AI-generated clarifications below this line; nothing is official until added to the FAQ above]

Technical AI Timelines

Self-Driving Vehicles

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