This forecast will resolve based on the following criteria:
1. Data Source Requirements:
- Primary source: Official Tesla rideshare statistics published by Tesla
- Secondary source: Data from a major rideshare analytics platform (e.g. Sensor Tower)
- Tertiary source: Data from at least three credible news sources reporting the same figure
- Sources will be used in order of preference as listed above
2. Time Period:
- Any single week before April 2026
- If data is not available for the exact week, a longer period can be used, pro-rated to a week
- If no satisfactory data is available for an week (or longer) 2025 by May 30 2026, the forecast will resolve as "No"
3. Ride Counting:
- Only completed rides count (cancelled or incomplete rides do not count)
- Rides must be completed through Tesla's official rideshare platform
- Rides completed through third-party platforms (e.g., Uber, Lyft) do not count
- The total must be 100,000 or more rides for the week to resolve as "Yes"
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At time of posting
https://robotaxitracker.com/?area=bay_area
shows
Bay area 449 rider vehicles
Austin 43 rider vehicles
Nothing in ride counting to say it needs to be driverless. Can expect rides to be less than 500 vehicles * 10 rides a day * 7 days a week is less than 35,000
We may need to wait until April 25 for the official Tesla number of rides per week. Tesla is now reporting the paid robotaxi miles in the quarterly. It was about 200,000 miles in December. Tesla now has 500+ cars in Austin and SF Bay ARea and is doubling each month (verbally reported on earnings call). A fleet of 2,000 cars in March 2026 (as per the doubling progression: 500 in Jan → 1,000 in Feb → 2,000 in Mar):
Base case (same ~4.77 rides/car/day): ~66,780 weekly rides (2,000 × 4.77 × 7, rounded).
Double intensity (~9.54 rides/car/day): ~133,560 weekly rides.
Triple intensity (~14.31 rides/car/day): ~200,340 weekly rides.
tesla has the lower rides per car per day. Uber and waymo have about triple the daily usage. Doubling current levels would get the weekly rides. Tesla will be reporting cumulative miles. Have to get the miles and infer the rides at about 5 miles per ride standard average for rideshare and Waymo. Waymo 2500 cars give 450,000 weekly rides.
Graph above from https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q1-2026-Update.pdf
roughly 670,000 miles at end of Dec 2025 per graph in previous post
To somewhere around 1,720,000 miles at end of March 2026
So an increase of roughly 1,050,000 miles
If it is an average of 5 miles per ride that is ~201,000 rides in the quarter
13 weeks in a quarter so about ~15,500 rides per week.
Even if the average ride was as short as 1 mile then it would still be less than 100,000 rides per week so I think this question should resolve no.
@mods creator inactive for 6 months.