MANIFOLD
Reform UK announce a current labour mp is joining them before the end of month?
21
Ṁ100Ṁ1.2k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves yes if there is an official announcement from reform uk or Nigel farage of a CURRENT labour mp joining reform Uk. Must be a current mp. Former doesn’t count. Councillors, previous candidates and any other roles don’t count. Must be currently serving in the House of Commons as a Labour Mp. Resolves no if by 23:59 31 Jan 2026 London time, nothing has been announced.

Must be named by the end of the month. Teasers don’t count.

Market context
UK Politics
UK
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With all these rumors swirling about defectors, I made a more general multi-market about the identities of potential defectors, which might interest traders here: https://manifold.markets/JayDH/which-uk-political-figures-will-def


In doing this, I realised I have no idea who this defector from labour could actually be. Surely not a sitting MP. My best guess was Kate Hoey, but turns out she's not a labour member any more...

Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian). Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES. I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future. I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types). I've also added a few more general options as well. As resolution seems pretty clear, I may bet in this market.

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