@traders the current amount needed to make it 1% is below in the thread

feel free to continue to update this thread with more current amounts

You inspired me to make: https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/will-this-market-be-above-50-when-i

Is it sufficient if the displayed percentage is 1%, even if in the background it's actually 1.0499% or something like that? Because in that case, limit orders at 1% are no obstacle.

@4fa If it shows 1% or 1.0%, then it counts. If it says 1.2% or something like that, then it doesn't.

@ItsMe so the answer is yes.

@traders made a arb market https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/market-in-description-resolves-yes?r=SmVyb21lSFBvd2VsbA

@JeromeHPowell why?

@MachiNi allows people to arb their bets between the two markets

@JeromeHPowell I know what arbitrage means. That’s not arbitrage, that’s just mirroring the market. Why?

@MachiNi having a second market opens the ability to arb between them. I didn’t on this market due to the fact that it is a meta-market and seems somewhat useful!

@JeromeHPowell to make more interesting you should add more liquidity. That won’t make it useful though.

@MachiNi that is a good suggestion to add liquidity.. I usually don’t make arb markets but I have arbitraged using RISK between them and I find it very useful!

Trust me, I’m not the first person to make a synthetic market that derives the outcome from another one for the purpose of arbitrage, whether it is that useful on this specific market is questionable, but in general having 2 markets where people can arbitrage seems to generally increase accuracy and calibration

@JeromeHPowell I mean a market like this isn't hurting for accuracy or calibration

either something crazy it is going to happen in this market or nothing is going to happen at all

You can drop to 1% with 413,599 mana

If someone makes a limit order of YES at 1% and then bets no? To me it says that if I make a 750,000 NO bet then it drops to 1%. If i make a limit order of 10k at 1% I get 1,000,000 so it gets filled the probability does drop to 1% so the resolution Criteria is met even if from my limit order it goes back up at whatever percent. So I gain 250k mana for free I just need 760k mana . Or would that be considered some type of unfair tactic?

@MikeIz9ZE I don't think all of your 10k limit order would get filled in that case. Maybe just 7.5k/10k. But you can try

@MikeIz9ZE oh I don't have the mana to do it i just mentioned this to try to understand the market better

As of now, someone needs to bet no with 357616 mana to make it go to 1%.

@AshDorsey

now it's a couple million lol

Arbitrage strategy: Set a buy order for Yes at 2%. Buy the same amount of shares for No at 2%. You either don’t get filled on your Yes order and make a profit, or you get filled and make zero profit. But you can’t lose in either case

By the property of this market, there will be a big YES buy once it actually reaches 1%. That skyrocket will be... Awesome.