Will this market reach 4%?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve "Yes" if the displayed probability for the "Yes" outcome on this specific market reaches or falls below 4.0% at any point before the market's scheduled close. The resolution will be based on the probability displayed on the market page, and the markets trading history.

This market will resolve "No" if the displayed probability for the "Yes" outcome on this specific market never reaches or falls below 4.0% before the market's scheduled close. The resolution will be based on the probability displayed on the market page. Prediction markets assign probabilities to events, with the price of a "Yes" share typically reflecting the market's collective belief in the probability of that outcome.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 25, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.