What will be the highest "Will this market hit x%?" market that resolves NO?
5
100Ṁ186
Dec 31
66%
chance

Resolves %X, where X is the threshold % for the highest value of X of a market in the format "Will this market hit X%", that ultimately resolves NO.

The prototypical market of this format: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-this-market-reach-1

To be eligible, a market must be open for trades for at least 3 days total. The first 24h may be a "grace period" as in https://manifold.markets/MaxE/will-this-market-hit-50. The market must resolve to NO before the end of 2025 (multiple "attempts" at a given threshold % are allowed).

To illustrate, if the "Will this market reach 1%?" market resolves NO, then this market will resolve to PROB >=1%

If the "Will this market reach 4%" market resolves NO, then this market will resolve to PROB >= 4%, and so on. (https://manifold.markets/JackP/will-this-market-reach-4)

  • Update 2025-10-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Eligible markets are limited to x ≤ 98%. Markets asking "Will this market reach 100%?" (or 99%) are not eligible for consideration.

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This is a trick question "Will this market reach 100%?" will always resolve no.

@121 clarification: for x <= 98%

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