Utter victory (Robin profits positive, my profits negative)

Plays a blinder (Robin profits positive, my profits positive)

Puts her foot in it (Robin profits negative, my profits positive)

wtaf just happened? (Robin profits negative, my profits negative)

 has quickly become by far the largest YES holder, buying at an above-mathematically-optimal rate of 3%. Is she taking a gamble? Does she have a secret plan? Does she just not know how to count?

Her behaviour has been described by some as "so much free mana", but others have pointed out that "funny things do happen" and "there are tricks". I'm sure we're all on the edge of our seats.

My own strategy is the very boring one which I believe to be risk free and very low return. I think there are some much bigger players than me following the same strategy but I haven't checked properly. Anyway, I'm using myself as a proxy for the "safe" strategy. So will Robin somehow defeat the strategy I think is safe? Or will she win but by exploiting other risky strategies? Or will she lose mana?

For resolution, I will take my and Robin's net profits in 

 , because I've been arbitraging them. In principle I should probably take net profits across all derivative markets (including this one???) but that sounds too complicated so it will only be the two linked markets. 

I will not trade in this market. I have set the close time to be before the close time of the main market, but note that the main market can of course resolve early if the condition is met.