Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Question

Loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST has passed.

Refer to this for the loan ledger: @/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.

We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.

Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it. Lack of resolution is not evidence that it hasn't happened yet -- asking for clarifications is encouraged. Markets added that have already achieved their YES state upon entry will resolve (or, if able, be changed to upon discovery) N/A.

Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): * Once the loan ledger for @Tumbles shows 0 loans:

All market answers that have not already met their conditions to resolve YES will resolve NO.

New loans taken by @Tumbles after this point (when the ledger first showed 0 loans) will not count towards this market.

Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Tumbles-related prediction markets', the creator has proposed the following resolution logic:

The count of 24 markets is tied to a specific overdue loan.

The count starts when a loan becomes overdue.

If that specific loan is paid back, the count for its lateness stops.

A new count would begin if a different loan becomes overdue.

Therefore, for this answer to resolve YES, more than 24 Tumbles-related markets must be created while a specific loan remains continuously overdue.

Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the general logic for all answers in this market:

Resolution is based on individual, specific loans, not a general "state of default."

A lateness count begins when a specific loan becomes overdue.

The count for that loan stops permanently once it is paid back.

A new, separate count would begin if a different loan becomes overdue. Lateness is not cumulative across different loans.

Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer corresponding to days of lateness:

This answer will resolve YES if the June 8th loans remain overdue at the start of July 3rd. The creator specifies this is the point at which the condition of being "more than 24 days late" is met.

Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): User-submitted entries have been disabled. No new answers can be added to this market by users.

Update 2026-01-17 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)': loans to @Orangey will count towards this answer's resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Fortnights, followed by Months and Decades are most likely. See the market for live updates (26 traders, as of Mar 1, 2026).