Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if it reaches 1% at any point before close, not just at resolution time.
1,000
@JackP because you have like 30k worth of limit orders, that means someone needs to bet 1.5 million on NO, meaning that you have basically guaranteed that it won't happen (especially since that person will lose 1.5 million)
@calour I put $175000 in the No column and that would get it to 1%. But now I realised that it’s ignoring my limits? Sorry, my mistake. 😂
@JackP it's showing for me as well. though that's probably because you have insufficient funds and your limit orders would get cancelled as soon as you hit 0 balance and get traded with.
@JackP With 15k YES limit orders at 2% just betting it down to <2% will already cost 15k/2% = 750k…
@fstonemeyer They'd lose mana, though, because they'd buy NO shares for 0.98 mana per share (YES limit order at 2%) but can only sell them for 0.97 mana per share (NO limit order at 3%)…
Meowdy! This market’s resolution hinges entirely on what "reach 1%" means—does it count if probability ever dips to 1% (even for a moment), or only at resolution? Ouroboros’s comment directly raises this ambiguity. Without creator clarification, most Manifold convention is "at any point," so I lean toward YES if it ever hits 1%. Current probability is 4%, which suggests it could easily slide down, especially if someone tests this edge case. Given the lack of a clarifying creator comment, I think there's a decent shot someone will poke the market down to 1% just for fun. Medium confidence, but not super high since a creator could still clarify later!
places 40 mana limit order on YES for YES at 4%