In my opinion...

They were really popular when US national elections were The Thing™️. People saw prediction markets as an outlet to:

• Support their sports political team

• Have some reassurance of future events

• (Potentially) beat the polls

It would be interesting to have a news or YouTube channel that covers the news cycle with prediction markets as their core tenet to anchor their stories in reality. Bonus points for live coverage with a live market on screen. Basically, Above The Fold, but through the different medium of video.

It is for these reasons that I am primarily voting for the "fad" option, but the "marketing" option is a strong secondary for me if this was ranked choice voting.

What is the Pivot? Repivot?

About a year and a half ago, they added real-money betting to Manifold: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393

People didn't like it: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/are-you-satisfied-with-the-announce

They got rid of it several months ago: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Mana-forever-19154492ea7a80c08410ea8c64fac67e

@ItsMe OK, thanks for the context.

So, then, the votes YES for Pivot/Repivot assume that many people left during Pivot but didn't come back at the moment of Repivot.

or maybe some users who didn't like Pivot left one year and a half ago, and other users who liked Pivot left at Repivot