If you look at the biggest markets of all-time, you'll find that none of the top ~100 were made in 2025.
1,000People are also trading
@EspenJohannesen I was coming to comments to say this precisely. Confirmation if there is a minor uptick when midterms approach.
@EspenJohannesen that's a good point. I remember coming here during the early ChatGPT hype. I think the first market I traded on was this one. The U.S presidential elections probably attracted a bunch of people too. I think 2025 has been a relatively normal year when it comes to news.
In my opinion...
They were really popular when US national elections were The Thing™️. People saw prediction markets as an outlet to:
Support their
sportspolitical teamHave some reassurance of future events
(Potentially) beat the polls
It would be interesting to have a news or YouTube channel that covers the news cycle with prediction markets as their core tenet to anchor their stories in reality. Bonus points for live coverage with a live market on screen. Basically, Above The Fold, but through the different medium of video.
It is for these reasons that I am primarily voting for the "fad" option, but the "marketing" option is a strong secondary for me if this was ranked choice voting.
@Quroe who cares about US national elections when you can bet on Who will be elected Mayor of Seattle in 2025?
About a year and a half ago, they added real-money betting to Manifold: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393
People didn't like it: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/are-you-satisfied-with-the-announce
They got rid of it several months ago: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Mana-forever-19154492ea7a80c08410ea8c64fac67e
@ItsMe OK, thanks for the context.
So, then, the votes YES for Pivot/Repivot assume that many people left during Pivot but didn't come back at the moment of Repivot.
@MiguelLM basically both, yeah. I left as the Pivot was starting and have only recently returned. I bet I'm one of the few who came back at all. Certainly everything in the list has played a role (+ new market dominance by Polymarket)