When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)
18
1.3kṀ31762026
1%
Before the end of 2024
3%
Before the end of 2025
5%
Before the end of 2026
7%
Before the end of 2027
9%
Before the end of 2028
11%
Before the end of 2029
14%
Before the end of 2030
26%
Before the end of 2035
33%
Before the end of 2040
40%
Before the end of 2050
50%
Before the end of 2100
50%
When Manifold go defunct, real money betting on elections outcomes are legal in the US
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Polymarket will still be running
64%
When Manifold go defunct, Twitter (X) will still be running
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, Joshua will still be active
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, James will still be the CEO
When the Manifold Market's servers cease operations permanently, preventing users from placing bets, I will consider Manifold to be defunct—even if viewing the markets is still possible.
Should Manifold Markets undergo a name change or be acquired by another company, I will regard the successor as the entity for resolution, provided the core functionality of placing bets on markets remains intact
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will manifold shut down?
Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?
89% chance
When will Manifold shut down?(READ DESC)
2% chance
When will manifold love shut down?
When will Manifold run out of money?
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
67% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
83% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
58% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
63% chance