When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)
18
1.3kṀ31762026
1%
Before the end of 2024
3%
Before the end of 2025
5%
Before the end of 2026
7%
Before the end of 2027
9%
Before the end of 2028
11%
Before the end of 2029
14%
Before the end of 2030
26%
Before the end of 2035
33%
Before the end of 2040
40%
Before the end of 2050
50%
Before the end of 2100
50%
When Manifold go defunct, real money betting on elections outcomes are legal in the US
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Polymarket will still be running
64%
When Manifold go defunct, Twitter (X) will still be running
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, Joshua will still be active
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, James will still be the CEO
When the Manifold Market's servers cease operations permanently, preventing users from placing bets, I will consider Manifold to be defunct—even if viewing the markets is still possible.
Should Manifold Markets undergo a name change or be acquired by another company, I will regard the successor as the entity for resolution, provided the core functionality of placing bets on markets remains intact
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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