When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)
#Manifold Features#Manifold Business Future
12
80
Ṁ1.3k
2026
8%
Before the end of 2024
10%
Before the end of 2025
20%
Before the end of 2026
24%
Before the end of 2027
26%
Before the end of 2028
27%
Before the end of 2029
29%
Before the end of 2030
45%
Before the end of 2035
49%
Before the end of 2040
56%
Before the end of 2050
59%
Before the end of 2100
50%
When Manifold go defunct, real money betting on elections outcomes are legal in the US
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running
50%
When Manifold go defunct, Polymarket will still be running
64%
When Manifold go defunct, Twitter (X) will still be running
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, Joshua will still be active
50%
A month before Manifold go defunct, James will still be the CEO

When the Manifold Market's servers cease operations permanently, preventing users from placing bets, I will consider Manifold to be defunct—even if viewing the markets is still possible.

Should Manifold Markets undergo a name change or be acquired by another company, I will regard the successor as the entity for resolution, provided the core functionality of placing bets on markets remains intact

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This market has the anthropic issue where every option should be 0% + interest just because YES can never actually pay out.

@Mira this market resists that issue:

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/which-prediction-markets-and-foreca

bought Ṁ90 Before the end of 2024 NO

@Mira I suppose Manifold could allow resolving existing markets and directing donations to charity but not placing bets.

@MartinRandall it's how most prediction markets shut down.. they stop allowing new bets and just slowly wind down operations

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