King County elections spokesperson Kendall LeVan Hodson said they expect “at least” another 180,00 ballots countywide, roughly half of which will be in Seattle. (The Seattle Times)

You have to figure out:
1) how many ballots you expect are left
2) with this number, how many more would Wilson need?

For reference, with 90K pending ballots, Wilson would need to have >57% of them to win.

in scenario B of this second model the participation is assumed to follow the same pattern as in 2021: elections have +28% total ballots compared with primaries

It is almost the same estimate as the previous one, but this time after checking the actual data

I own 2,5k shares, so I want to get some profit selling cheap

Polymarket is at 60% for Harrell, I created a limit order at 55%

The first order was filled in a few minutes. I created a new one at 60%

@stevjobs 99%?

I don't see anything in the news yet, and Polymarket is at 65%

@MiguelLM had liquitity to spend. This ist not a rational decision.

@stevjobs OK, thanks

I though maybe the next vote count was already known in Seattle or some small local media before it was widespread

Reporting 23.36% as of November 4, 9:35 PM PST

Bruce Harrell
Popular vote 62,086
Percentage 53.32%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Seattle_mayoral_election

as of now, 20% seems too low for this market for Harrell

and arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/HenryRodgers/will-bruce-harrell-be-reelected-as

Added Katie Wilson as an option

https://www.wilsonforseattle.com/

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2025/05/katie-wilson-36-bruce-harrell-33-npis-may-2025-civic-heartbeat-poll-finds-statistical-tie-in-seattle-mayoral-race.html

I want better options.....

(From Seattle, not from the market creator)